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The models get core assumptions wrong — the hot spot is missing 22 — 26, 28 — 31 Clouds cool the planet as it warms 38 — 56 The models are wrong on a local, regional, or continental scale.
Figure 1 Climate Sensitivity Comparison empirical methods versus models, for a doubling of the CO2 level. The direct effect of CO2 is only 1.
Models amplify that warming with assumptions about positive feedback see the blue region of model estimates in the graph below. But observations show that net feedback is probably negative, which would instead reduce the direct effect of the extra carbon dioxide.
While independent scientists point to the empirical evidence, government funded scientists argue that a majority of scientists, a consensus, support the theory that a man-made catastrophe is coming. The test of scientific knowledge is through experiment and observation.
The only evidence the government scientists provide on the key points of attribution the cause of the warming come from simulations of the climate done with computers.
A multitude of observations are in rough agreement that any increase in global average temperature caused by a doubling of CO2 is more likely to be about half a degree than the 3. The major problem for models: Feedbacks Our climate changes because of outside effects, called forcings: The Earth is a ball of magma, is a 12, km thick, with a thin crust about 12 km of rock on top, who knows what effects come from within?
The IPCC recognizes only two types of forcings: Forcings are difficult to unravel. Harder still are feedbacks, as systems all over the planet simultaneously adjust to changing conditions. In a warmer world, for instance, less ice and more plant-life means less sunlight is reflected to space, which creates more warming.
The oceans release carbon dioxide, more water evaporates, humidity changes, sea-levels rise, and all of those consequent changes further affect temperatures. Indeed while CO2 may cause one degree of warming, the feedbacks amplify this — theoretically anyway — by up to three degrees.
The major agent of feedback, according to the IPCC, is water vapor ie. Some details matter more than others. Models assume that relative humidity will stay the same over the tropics as the world warms, that clouds are a positive feedback and not a negative one, and that cloud changes are a feedback and not a forcing in their own right.
These are three critical and demonstrable errors. In addition, if Miscolscki is right, and an increase in carbon dioxide leads to a decrease in water vapor, then the sensitivity due to CO2 could be close to zero.
The global warming predictions are contradicted by the data. The exception proves that the rule is wrong. That is the principle of science. If there is an exception to any rule, and if it can be proved by observation, that rule is wrong. Lerner, Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms.
American Geophysical Union, pp. Prall,Jacob Haroldand Stephen H.
Expert credibility in climate change, PNAS, Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds. Geophysical Research Letters Le Traon  Global hydrographic variability patterns during Evidence for strengthening of the tropical general circulation in the s. Climate change during — Cloud interactions determined from satellite measurements.
Drakakis On the decadal increase in the tropical mean outgoing longwave radiation for the period — Soden The sensitivity of the tropical-mean radiation budget. Synthesis and Assessment Report 1. A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.To read more about heart disease and cholesterol, check out the special report page.
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